What to Expect in Agriculture in 2022: Part 1
The Covid-19 impact on the global agriculture sector has been and is still a challenge in facing the industry in the coming years. Despite the challenges and uncertainty in the workforce, natural calamities, fertilizers, farm equipment, government policies, and volatile markets, agricultural producers are still hopeful for a promising industry in 2022.
Challenges in Agriculture in 2022
One of the utmost factors the industry has to deal with is the logistical hiccups caused by the pandemic and the new variant coming up. The shortage of containers causes the shipping of fresh fruits and vegetables to be complicated. On the other hand, the international trade for grain and sugar commodities in huge ships are having limited capacities, causing considerable challenges for both merchants and producers.
Furthermore, oil prices cause the inflation of commodity prices from fertilizers to chemicals to the transport of goods across oceans. The price inflation is anticipated to decrease in the coming years but is seen to be so constant.
Among the challenges, unpredictable weather tops the most uncertain forecast in agriculture in 2022. During the first few months of 2021, food prices and demands rose caused by the droughts in the North and South American regions. Currently, scientists have opened up the probability of La Niňa over the winter. Other natural disasters like wildfires and floods may also disturb agricultural production globally.
During the pandemic period, the prices of food products were anticipated to rise. Due to the lockdown, it has been forecasted that consumers had stocked up, and borders have been closed. Though the forecast somehow leveled the expectations, it was until the first world countries have loosened the lockdowns that food prices started to evidently increase instantly.
By the first quarter of 2021, the food prices reached their highest point after 2011, which has now a record of 40% in 12 months. The same increase in force is predicted to continue in 2022. Corn, for example, would sell at an average of USD4.80, soybeans at USD10.50/bushel, cotton at 80 cents a pound, and wheat would most likely hit USD6.5 a bushel.
Agriculture Export and Production Overview
The USDA reports that export value for 2021 could hit USD173.5 billion, a USD4 billion increase from 2020. In 2022, export values for agricultural stocks are forecasted at USD177.5 billion due to the increased demands of export dairy and poultry products. It leads farmers to plant an additional 2.1 million acres of crops in the US territory alone.
The production of staple products like corn is expected to record at 15.240 billion bushels, while soybeans are anticipated at 4.465 billion bushels. Wheat production, on the other hand, is expected to grow at 2.003 billion bushels and will be tagged as the largest crop since 2016. Cotton will also rise by 25% from last year’s production and is projected to hit 17.8 million bales accounting for 480 pounds each.
With the forecast guide, farmers are now expected to plant corn at 92 million acres, soybeans at 87.5 million acres, wheat at 49 million acres, and cotton at 12 million acres. The USDA forecasts that corn will be more sustaining than soybeans, considering the costs of seeds, chemicals, and fertilizers.
The global economic growth rate for 2022 is anticipated to be led by China and Europe, with the former having a forecast growth of 5.8% and 4.5% for the latter. Similarly, Canada’s economy is anticipated to grow at 4.6% and Mexico with 2.9%.
A 4.3% global economic growth is seen by next year, having the United States, Europe, and China leading the list. The leading regions will account for 64% of the global economy, while Canada, China, and Mexico lead the market for US exports.
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